The Kansas City Chiefs are on the brink of missing the playoffs for the first time since 2020, after a stunning Thanksgiving Day loss to the Dallas Cowboys dropped them to 6-6 and 9th in the AFC standings. With five weeks left in the regular season, the Houston Texans (6-5) hold a critical conference recordbreaker advantage over Kansas City — and the Jacksonville Jaguars (7-4) sit two full games ahead, making the Chiefs’ path to the postseason one of the most improbable in recent NFL history. What was once a predictable ride to the AFC title game — last season, the Chiefs were the top seed alongside the Detroit Lions — now feels like a slow-motion collapse.
How the Chiefs Lost Their Grip
The turning point came on Thanksgiving night at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, where the Cowboys stunned the Chiefs 31-24 in a game that exposed Kansas City’s crumbling defense and inconsistent offense. The loss wasn’t just a setback — it was a symbolic unraveling. The Chiefs, who entered the season as Super Bowl LVIII champions and favorites to repeat, now face a reality they haven’t known since 2019: they’re not just fighting for a bye, they’re fighting to make the field at all.
Even their head-to-head win over the Indianapolis Colts doesn’t help. Because the Colts hold the tiebreaker edge in conference wins — a detail buried in the fine print of NFL.com’s playoff probability report — that victory is effectively neutered. Meanwhile, the Texans, who beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 13, now have the best AFC record among teams below the top four. And the Jaguars? They’ve quietly built a machine. With Travis Etienne running wild and QB Trevor Lawrence playing the cleanest football of his career, Jacksonville is no longer a surprise — they’re a legitimate threat.
The AFC Playoff Logjam
As of November 28, 2025, the AFC playoff picture is a tangled mess. The New England Patriots (10-2) lead the pack with a 99% chance to make it. The Denver Broncos (9-2) are right behind at 97%. Then come the Indianapolis Colts (8-3) and Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5) — all secure. But then? Chaos.
The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills (all 7-4) hold the three wild-card spots. The Houston Texans (6-5) sit just half a game behind, with the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens (both 6-6) trailing by a game. That’s five teams fighting for two spots. And the tiebreakers? They’re brutal.
Here’s the twist: the Las Vegas Raiders’ Week 1 win over the Patriots — yes, that game in Foxborough — could still decide who gets the No. 1 seed. If Denver wins out, they’ll leapfrog New England based on common opponents, even if both finish 15-2. The Chiefs? They need wins against the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders — and they need the Texans, Jaguars, and Bills to lose at least twice each. It’s a long shot.
Why the Texans Are the Real Threat
Don’t sleep on Houston. They’ve won four of their last five, including a gritty road win over the Tennessee Titans in Week 12. Their defense, once a joke, now ranks 8th in the AFC in points allowed. And their conference record? 5-3. The Chiefs? 4-4. That’s the difference. In a tie, Houston wins. Plain and simple. The Texans don’t need to beat the Jaguars — they just need to not lose to Kansas City, and hope the Chiefs stumble against the Cleveland Browns or Miami Dolphins.
And here’s what makes it worse for Kansas City: their remaining schedule includes two road games against playoff-caliber teams — the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. Meanwhile, the Texans have two home games against the Carolina Panthers and Cincinnati Bengals, both struggling teams. The schedule gods are not smiling on Patrick Mahomes and Co.
What’s Next? The Final Five Weeks
The next five weeks will be a rollercoaster. The Denver Broncos face the Washington Commanders and Las Vegas Raiders in Weeks 14 and 15 — wins there could lock them into the No. 1 seed. The Patriots get a bye in Week 14, which could either help them rest or hurt them by letting the pack close in.
For the Chiefs, it’s simple: win out. Beat Washington, beat Las Vegas, beat Tampa, beat Buffalo, beat the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 18. And then hope the Jaguars lose at least two of their final five — including a tough road trip to Kansas City in Week 17. That’s the only path.
It’s not just about wins. It’s about momentum. The Jaguars are playing with confidence. The Texans are playing like a team that believes. The Chiefs? They’re playing like a team that’s running out of time.
Historical Context: When Top Seeds Fall
Last season, the Chiefs and Lions were the two best teams in the AFC and NFC. This year? Both are on the outside looking in. It’s a rare collapse. Since 2010, only three teams that finished as top-2 seeds in the previous season missed the playoffs the next year. Two of them — the 2014 Broncos and 2019 Packers — were derailed by injuries. The Chiefs? No major injuries. Just poor execution. And a schedule that turned against them.
Even more telling: the last time the Chiefs missed the playoffs after a Super Bowl appearance? 2006. That was 19 years ago. Now, they’re staring at their first absence since the Andy Reid era began — and it’s not because of bad luck. It’s because the AFC got deeper. And the Texans and Jaguars? They’re no longer the underdogs. They’re the ones pulling the ladder up.
Frequently Asked Questions
How can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs?
The Chiefs must win all five of their remaining games — against Washington, Las Vegas, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, and the Chargers — while hoping the Jacksonville Jaguars lose at least two of their final five, and the Houston Texans lose at least one. Even then, they’d need to win the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Texans, which they can’t do because Houston already holds the conference record advantage. Their only realistic path is to finish 11-6 and hope for multiple losses among the 7-4 teams.
Why does Houston have the tiebreaker over Kansas City?
The NFL’s first tiebreaker among teams with identical records is conference win percentage. The Texans are 5-3 in AFC games; the Chiefs are 4-4. That half-game lead gives Houston the edge in any tie scenario, even if Kansas City wins their head-to-head matchup. This rule is why the Texans don’t need to beat the Jaguars — they just need to outperform the Chiefs in AFC games.
Who controls the No. 1 seed in the AFC?
The Denver Broncos control their destiny. If they win their next two games — against Washington and Las Vegas — they’ll finish with at least 11 wins and surpass New England for the top seed based on record against common opponents. Even if the Patriots go 15-2, Denver’s superior performance against shared opponents (like the Raiders, Chiefs, and Chargers) gives them the edge. The Patriots’ Week 14 bye could cost them momentum.
Are the Jaguars a legitimate playoff threat?
Absolutely. The Jaguars are 7-4, have won four of their last five, and lead the AFC South. Trevor Lawrence has posted a 105.8 passer rating over the last six games, and Travis Etienne is on pace for 1,500 rushing yards. They’re not a fluke — they’re a well-coached, balanced team with a defense that ranks top-10 in third-down efficiency. They’re not just in the race; they’re one of the few teams that can beat anyone on any given Sunday.
What role did the Raiders’ Week 1 win play in this playoff race?
The Raiders’ 27-20 upset of the Patriots in Week 1 at Gillette Stadium has become the season’s hidden pivot. Because Denver’s schedule includes multiple games against teams the Patriots also played — including the Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs — Denver holds the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage in common opponents. That single win in September could ultimately hand Denver the No. 1 seed, even if they finish with fewer total wins than New England.
Is this the end of the Chiefs’ dynasty?
Not necessarily — but it’s a warning sign. The Chiefs’ offense still has elite talent, but their defense is inconsistent, and their coaching staff has struggled with in-game adjustments. If they miss the playoffs this year, it’ll be the first time since 2019 they’ve failed to reach the AFC Championship. That’s not a dynasty ending — it’s a dynasty needing a reset. The next six months will determine whether this is a one-year stumble or the start of a decline.